9860

Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics

Infectious diseases show complex patterns of spread in their host populations that can range from short and peaked epidemics to persistent, endemic scenarios. Epidemic dynamics are determined by a disease's course and infectious profile that can pass through different stages, here represented by infected individuals in initial and latent stages and . Furthermore, there is mutual influence between the dynamic transmission network of infectious contacts and epidemic spread. This Demonstration simultaneously studies the temporal evolution of epidemic prevalence and transmission network dynamics in terms of the average number of contacts among healthy (susceptible) and infected individuals (, and , ).

SNAPSHOTS

  • [Snapshot]

DETAILS

This Demonstration is an implementation of the epidemic model introduced in [1, 2]: Healthy individuals are susceptible to infection from initially and latently infected individuals and . Once infected, individuals progress from an initial stage to a latent stage before dying at rates and , therefore representing a simplified model for an HIV infection. Individuals are connected through a network of potentially infectious contacts in which the distribution in the number of concurrent contacts per individual can be parameterized. Further complexity is added to the dynamics of the transmission network by allowing for demographic change (through birth and death at rates and ) and switching of contacts at a rate .
The model is sketched in the following figure, a detailed presentation can be found in [1]. Note that the model with and corresponds to the classical SIR model with representing the number of recovered individuals ( if demographic change is neglected).
References
[1] C. Kamp, "Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics," PLoS Computational Biology, 6(11), 2010 e1000984. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000984
[2] C. Kamp, "Demographic and Behavioural Change during Epidemics," Procedia Computer Science, 1(1), 2010 pp. 2247–2253. doi:10.1016/j.procs.2010.04.252

RELATED LINKS

    • Share:

Embed Interactive Demonstration New!

Just copy and paste this snippet of JavaScript code into your website or blog to put the live Demonstration on your site. More details »

Files require Wolfram CDF Player or Mathematica.









 
RELATED RESOURCES
Mathematica »
The #1 tool for creating Demonstrations
and anything technical.
Wolfram|Alpha »
Explore anything with the first
computational knowledge engine.
MathWorld »
The web's most extensive
mathematics resource.
Course Assistant Apps »
An app for every course—
right in the palm of your hand.
Wolfram Blog »
Read our views on math,
science, and technology.
Computable Document Format »
The format that makes Demonstrations
(and any information) easy to share and
interact with.
STEM Initiative »
Programs & resources for
educators, schools & students.
Computerbasedmath.org »
Join the initiative for modernizing
math education.
Step-by-step Solutions »
Walk through homework problems one step at a time, with hints to help along the way.
Wolfram Problem Generator »
Unlimited random practice problems and answers with built-in Step-by-step solutions. Practice online or make a printable study sheet.
Wolfram Language »
Knowledge-based programming for everyone.
Powered by Wolfram Mathematica © 2014 Wolfram Demonstrations Project & Contributors  |  Terms of Use  |  Privacy Policy  |  RSS Give us your feedback
Note: To run this Demonstration you need Mathematica 7+ or the free Mathematica Player 7EX
Download or upgrade to Mathematica Player 7EX
I already have Mathematica Player or Mathematica 7+