November 7, 2012

The next US presidential election will be held Tuesday, November 6, 2012. The election map might look like one of the maps randomly generated by this Demonstration. Red states represent the Republican Party and blue states represent the Democratic Party. In the actual election, Utah and Wyoming will very likely wind up being red states, while Illinois and Delaware will very likely be blue states. Most of the map changes occur in the battleground states, such as Florida, Iowa, and Ohio. Running millions of random trials allows an analysis of possible election day events, based on the reliability of the state-by-state odds.
For example, in this Demonstration, the Democratic Party (blue) will win the state of Arizona nine times out of 100, and the Republican Party (red) will win the state of Minnesota nine times out of 100.


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State-by-state predictions were based on data from Nate Silver's New York Times blog [1]. Each candidate was given at least a 1% chance of winning any state. Effects for states that split the electoral votes, such as Nebraska, were not considered.
[1] N. Silver, "State-by-State Probabilities," FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus (blog). (Aug 21, 2012)
[2] J. Lietz. "Tornado Activity in the U.S. 1950–2007" from the Wolfram Demonstrations Project—A Wolfram Web Resource.
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