Reducing Fatalities from Coronavirus Epidemic
A simple dynamic epidemiological model is used to explore two strategies for "flattening the curve," thus avoiding overwhelming the health care system and so reduce fatalities from coronavirus spread:[more]
• Placing uniform restrictions on social contacts for an entire population.
• Placing higher restrictions on the high-risk fraction of the population and lower restrictions on the low-risk fraction of the population.[less]
The model has the form
= high-risk fraction of the population not infected
= low-risk fraction of the population not infected
= high-risk fraction of the population infected
= low-risk fraction of the population infected
= restriction on social contacts placed on high-risk fraction of population
= rate of infection
= rate of recovery after infection
Overall mortality is computed to be
where have been computed based on infection rates from  and distribution of age over population from .
Basic information on the subject along with additional references can be found at . A nice visualization can also be found at .
 L. T. Vo. "These Charts Break Down Who Is Most at Risk of Dying from the Coronavirus." (Mar 20, 2020) www.buzzfeednews.com/article/lamvo/coronavirus-death-rates-age-charts-us-china.
 Central Intelligence Agency. "The World Factbook." (Mar 20, 2020) www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html.
 J. Kantor. "Modeling and Control of a Campus Outbreak of Coronavirus COVID-19." (Mar 20, 2020) nbviewer.jupyter.org/github/jckantor/CBE30338/blob/master/notebooks/03.09-COVID-19.ipynb?fbclid=IwAR2t1Cqo1RI44wEvpB5qkPaADjNcl_ 119ZcE_X7Yev5xq3q _CDex3bxQkRY.
 H. Stevens. "Why Outbreaks like Coronavirus Spread Exponentially, and How to 'Flatten the Curve'." (Mar 20, 2020) www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator.