Details

The model has the form

,

,

,

,

where

= high-risk fraction of the population not infected

= low-risk fraction of the population not infected

= high-risk fraction of the population infected

= low-risk fraction of the population infected

= restriction on social contacts placed on high-risk fraction of population

= rate of infection

= rate of recovery after infection

Overall mortality is computed to be

,

where have been computed based on infection rates from [1] and distribution of age over population from [2].

Basic information on the subject along with additional references can be found at [3]. A nice visualization can also be found at [4].

References

[1] L. T. Vo. "These Charts Break Down Who Is Most at Risk of Dying from the Coronavirus." (Mar 20, 2020) www.buzzfeednews.com/article/lamvo/coronavirus-death-rates-age-charts-us-china.

[2] Central Intelligence Agency. "The World Factbook." (Mar 20, 2020) www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html.

[3] J. Kantor. "Modeling and Control of a Campus Outbreak of Coronavirus COVID-19." (Mar 20, 2020) nbviewer.jupyter.org/github/jckantor/CBE30338/blob/master/notebooks/03.09-COVID-19.ipynb?fbclid=IwAR2t1Cqo1RI44wEvpB5qkPaADjNcl_ 119ZcE_X7Yev5xq3q _CDex3bxQkRY.

[4] H. Stevens. "Why Outbreaks like Coronavirus Spread Exponentially, and How to 'Flatten the Curve'." (Mar 20, 2020) www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator.