Details

Reed–Frost SIR/SEIR are discrete-time versions of infection transmission in a host population with standard (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) compartments with the usual transition patterns: .

The transition rate from each strata to the next is determined by a survival probability per unit time step (e.g. day). It measures what fraction of a given compartment will stay within the compartment. For instance, the fraction of latent group would remain latent over one time step, while the complementary would advance to the next level . The force of infection depends on the resistance level of the group (probability to survive an infectious contact) , the contact rate (per day), and the infected population fraction (the product gives the average number of infective contacts per day). Model parameters include:

The basic reproduction number (BRN) is , which determines whether an infection outbreak occurs or dies out . It also controls the endemic level (provided . In our setup, the total population stays constant and the variables represent population fractions (or prevalences) relative to .

References

[1] Ohio Supercomputer Center Summer Institute. "Reed–Frost Epidemic Model." (May 22, 2012).

[2] Animal Population Health Institute, Colorado State University. "Deterministic and Stochastic Reed–Frost Epidemic Modeling Software." (May 22, 2012) http://reed-frostepi.sourceforge.net/index.php.

[3] G. Davis. "Simple Reed–Frost Equation." (May 22, 2012).