Details

The SEIRD model for COVID-19 implemented in this Demonstration is the coupled system of ordinary differential equations:

,

,

,

,

,

where

= susceptible fraction of the population,

= exposed fraction of the population,

= infected fraction of the population,

= fraction of population that has recovered,

= fraction of population that has died of the infection,

= effectiveness of control (social distancing) measure,

= infection rate,

= average incubation time (days),

= average infective time (days),

= case fatality rate.

References

[1] Nigeria Centre for Disease Control.

[2] World Health Organization. "Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Report–74." (Apr 22, 2020) www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200403-sitrep-74-covid-19-mp.pdf?sfvrsn=4e043d03_12.

[3] Worldometer. "COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic." (Apr 22, 2020) www.worldometers.info/coronavirus.

[4] L. Peng, W. Yang, D. Zhang, C. Zhuge and L. Hong, "Epidemic Analysis of COVID-19 in China by Dynamical Modeling," medRxiv, 2020. doi:10.1101/2020.02.16.20023465.

[5] B. M. Ndiaye, L. Tendeng and D. F. Seck, "Analysis of the COVID-19 Pandemic by SIR Model and Machine Learning Technics for Forecasting." arxiv.org/abs/2004.01574v1.