National Football League In-Game Probability

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This Demonstration shows the in-game probability distribution based on the offensive team's current situation. Simply change the controls to see how the probability changes with different circumstances. The original settings are set for the beginning of the game. The offensive yard line represents the number of yards a team is away from its own end zone (i.e. 90 means the offensive team is on its opponent's 10 yard line). Time is represented in seconds (i.e. 900 is the beginning of the second or the fourth quarter). The gap is positive when winning and negative when losing. Gap in score and timeouts are not considered in overtime.

Contributed by: Kyle Prince (July 2011)
Open content licensed under CC BY-NC-SA



This in-game probability model of National Football League games was created using a logistic regression model of over 110,000 in-game situations from 2006 to 2008.

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