Convergence of Probability II: Condorcet's Jury Theorem, Part 4

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This is the fourth of five Demonstrations about Condorcet's jury theorem (1785). For a given probability bias and number of voters , the probability that an election yields the "correct" result can be calculated from the binomial distribution and is shown on the plot as a horizontal dashed line. As the number of elections grows, the fraction of elections yielding the "correct" result approaches this value.

Contributed by: Tetsuya Saito (March 2011)
Open content licensed under CC BY-NC-SA


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This Demonstration shows the convergence of probability to a certain probability for a given number of voters as the number of experiments increases. The difference from another Demonstration in this series (Convergence of Probability I) is as follows: In the former Demonstration, we examined convergence of probability as the number of voters increases with a given number of experiments. Then we could find the probability of correct decision converges to 1 as the number of voters increases. In this Demonstration, in turn with a given number of voters, we verify the convergence of probability to a certain number as the number of experiments increases, as indicated by the theoretical model.



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